DOUBLE-DIP PROGNOSIS
“DOUBLE—DIP–PROGNOSIS”
by
Sanford Pinna, M.D.
Copyright 2010
There are two groups of economic forecasters
describing the future of the U.S. Economy.
The optimistic group describes the economy
as “recovering rapidly” by using positive sounding
reports on the data observed.
“Jobs fell less than expected” ” Homes sales
dropped less than expected.”
“Less than expected” is the new Obama
chorus, used for all information given to the public.
The realistic or pessimistic economic forecasters have a different melody:
“Yes, the economy is recovering now, but
it will fall again later.”
This is the “Double—Dip—Prognosis”
This prognosis goes back to the time line of
the “Great Depression” of the World which took
place in the 1930′s.
A “Straight Line” does not exist in the Universe.
No matter where a scientist looks, in the
physical universe, he will not find a straight line.
The universe is composed only of matter
which moves in the form of waves.
Straight lines and regular curves only
exist in the minds of humans. The Ancient
Greeks, led by Euclid, developed the form of
logic called Geometry, in which straight lines
and curves which obey mathematical formulas
exist.
Geometry is a fantasy of the human mind.
Because humans are so captivated and
charmed by the beauty of geometry, they
frequently are caught in the belief that
human events will only go in one direction.
The is the major reason why humans
create economic “bubbles” where one entity
is believed to go only in one direction—Up!
Home prices, gold, stocks, diamonds,
(In Holland 300 years ago, it was TULIPS!”
all believed to go higher in price forever.
Or, the public believes that prices
or the economy, will only go down.
Thus, the doom-seers or pessimists
who believe that assets or the economy
can only go down.
TRENDS
But, is it possible that events can
travel, in wave fashion, in one way—
up or down—in waves, but in one general
direction.
Yes!
The universe is moving inexorably towards
entropy—lack of motion.
It may well be, that the universe will change
direction, from expansion to contraction, however,
at the moment it is expanding.
During this expansion towards entropy,
we will see trends in our local area, in the
form of waves.
And, waves are made of smaller waves.
THE PRESENT TREND
If we look at these charts, which depict job losses
during recent recessions, and job losses for six recent
recessions, we can see that the one we are currently
in is trending downwards with very little recovery.
Job losses are the bottom line of any economy.
What difference does it make to an employee if the
stock market or gold or the governmental debt
are all soaring?
Nothing whatsoever!
No Job=No Food!
This is why the Government under the Obama
leadership is changing the vocabulary of the United
States.
Everything, including jobs, are going down—
BUT LESS, THAN BEFORE
How long will it take for the American public
to realize that “going down” but, “less than before”
means “going down” in waves.
And, “Double Dip” means: DOWN (1), UP
and DOWN (2) for the “Double Dip.”
Hang on, it’s going to be a wild ride
